Back to Basics Budget
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Zero per cent in 2027.
Your property tax rate will not go up in the first Lawson budget. Not one point. Here is how we pay for it.
Ottawa does not have a revenue problem. It has a leaky bucket problem. Fix the bucket, put every dollar to work, and Ottawa can hold the line without cutting the services people count on.
City Hall has raised the property tax rate in every budget this term, 3.75 per cent in 2026 alone. Each time, it said there was no other way. There is. The City signs more than $2 billion a year in contracts, pays consultant rates for work it orders every few weeks, budgets overtime at two thirds of what it actually spends, and lets departments spend down their budgets in December so they do not lose the money in January. We are overpaying for things like speed bumps and memorial trees. We are buying in bulk, but paying more.
These are just a few of the leaks. This plan plugs them. The zero year is the one that matters most, because every dollar not taken in 2027 is a dollar not paid in 2028, 2029 and 2030 either. After it, the plan sets the rate for the rest of the term so you can hold us to it: one per cent in 2028 as the first full year of savings lands, and at or below two per cent in 2029 and 2030. Every dollar found above that line goes into getting the basics right, not into next year’s spending.
Property tax rate increases over the term, 2027 to 2030.
What each year has to cover.
Running the City costs more every year: wage settlements, materials and contracts, the police budget, interest on debt already taken on, and transit. Under the current mayor that pressure has run about $155 million a year, covered with tax increases, assessment growth and “efficiencies” that are mostly not real. A Lawson budget does not carry new programs with no funding source, or more money for OC Transpo before the schedule is fixed. Without those, the pressure is about $65 million to $85 million a year after the $35 million that new homes and businesses add to the tax base.
| Year | Rate | New room | Pressure after growth | Savings the ledger must show |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0% | $35M | $65M to $85M, plus $21M of promises | $85M to $105M |
| 2028 | 1% | $59M | $65M to $85M | $125M to $165M, cumulative |
| 2029 | 2% | $84M | $65M to $85M | $145M to $205M, cumulative |
| 2030 | 2% | $85M | $65M to $85M | $160M to $240M, cumulative |
The $21 million of promises in 2027 are two things Alex has already committed to: protecting the roughly $12.5 million a year the vacant unit tax clears for affordable housing when it is repealed, and raising the small business tax discount from 15 to 25 per cent, about $8.4 million a year.
Where the money comes from.
Each saving is estimated per year at full value. The contracts list, open procurement and in-house engineering take a year to bite, so 2027 counts them at part-year and 2028 is the first full year.
| Saving | Per year |
|---|---|
| Your money in plain sight, and the first price should be the last price | $29M to $62M |
| Office hiring discipline: not refilling one in four office departures | $12M to $15M |
| Keep 25. Return 75. Ending use-it-or-lose-it budgeting | $6M to $12M |
| Overtime control outside transit | $5M to $10M |
| Annual value-for-money audits of City departments | $5M to $10M |
| Stop renting the same expertise (half counted, to avoid double counting) | $4M to $6.5M |
| A fine is a fine for everyone | $2M to $4M |
| Competitive bidding for City services, leaner council office budgets | $3M to $5M |
| AI does the paperwork. People do the work. Direct savings after licences | $1.8M to $5.2M |
| Total savings | $68M to $130M |
| Business-led growth through the Jobs and growth plan, year one | $9M to $18M |
| Total with growth | $77M to $148M |
The six leaks, and how we plug them
A live, searchable, plain-language list of every contract, with no minimum dollar amount, updated as work is awarded, not in six-month batches. Consultants included. Open procurement so more companies bid. Ottawa signs more than $2 billion a year in contracts; every penny on the dollar is $20 million. After Montreal opened its contracts to an inspector general, the price of a sidewalk fell by a third and the number of bidders went from four to 17.
In 2024 and 2025, more than one in four City contract approvals were changes to contracts already signed: 955 amendments worth $582 million. Every amendment goes on the public list the day it happens, and clear scope up front means fewer extras after signing.
End use-it-or-lose-it budgeting. At year end, departments keep 25 per cent of what they have left for their own priorities and 75 per cent goes back to the tax base. Reward the people who save, not the people who spend. The federal government has let departments carry forward 5 per cent since the 1990s for exactly this reason.
We are not going to fine people more to raise revenue. Parking meters come out, and the Province has already shut off the photo radar cameras. But drivers owed the City $92 million in unpaid fines as of September 2025. A fine still unpaid two years after it was issued gets collected from a tax refund, the same rule for owners and renters, drivers and non-drivers. New fines only.
Expand the automation the City has already started, so staff spend their time fixing roads and approving homes, not retyping forms. No layoffs. No personal information goes into an AI model. A person makes every decision that affects a resident. The time saved becomes budget savings through hiring discipline: not refilling one in four office departures.
The City ordered the same road, sewer and inspection engineering about 450 times a year in 2024 and 2025, about $95 million a year, from the same firms, at consultant rates. Hire for the routine. Contract for the rare. Ontario’s Auditor General found Metrolinx could save $10 million to $15 million a year the same way.
What we will not do.
Raise taxes to cover waste. Fix the leaks first. Drain the reserves to fake a freeze. Brampton froze taxes while its strategic reserve fell from about $200 million to under $10 million; that is a bill sent to next year. Fine people more just to raise revenue. We collect what we are owed. Cut the services people count on. No bus routes are cut, and no bus driver, paramedic, firefighter or snowplough operator loses a job. Add a program without naming what pays for it. No new spending without a named saving. Spend the headroom. Every dollar above the 0, 1, 2, 2 line goes to getting the basics right, and the savings ledger is published with every budget.
Savings that aren’t.
Mark Sutcliffe says he found more than $250 million in savings at City Hall, and promises to do it again. Read the City’s own tables and only about one dollar in ten came from City Hall running leaner. Nearly half, $115 million, is capital “efficiencies” the City does not itemize: cheaper bids, smaller projects, or work pushed to later years. A road rebuild pushed to 2028 gets booked as an efficiency. The road still has to be built, at 2028 prices. Another $67 million is transit, including $10 million from what the City calls “bus route optimization.” Less service is not efficiency.
The budget books say the rest. The 2026 budget claimed $44.9 million in efficiencies without removing a single position. The City spent $99.4 million on overtime in 2025 and budgeted $65.2 million for 2026. His last 2.5 per cent promise lasted two years; the rate went 2.5, 2.5, 3.9 for urban homes, then 3.75.
What it means for your tax bill.
The average urban home in Ottawa paid about $4,590 in property tax in 2026. Here is that bill under each plan.
| Plan | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Four years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lawson: 0%, 1%, 2%, 2% | $4,593 | $4,639 | $4,732 | $4,826 | $18,790 |
| Mark Sutcliffe: 2.5% a year, his own cap | $4,708 | $4,826 | $4,946 | $5,070 | $19,549 |
| Jeff Leiper: his 1% levy and an estimated 3% | $4,777 | $4,968 | $5,167 | $5,373 | $20,285 |
| Saved under Lawson vs. Sutcliffe | $115 | $187 | $214 | $244 | $759 |
The zero year is where the value is: every dollar not taken in 2027 is a dollar not paid in 2028, 2029 and 2030 either. The mayor’s cap covers 2027 and 2028 only; the table carries it through the term. Leiper has named only the levy, so his row assumes a 3 per cent base each year.
I know what things cost.
I build houses for a living. Every job starts with a number, and the number has to be right. If I get it wrong in the client’s favour, I eat the difference. If I get it wrong the other way, I lose the job to somebody honest. You learn pretty fast that you don’t find waste by shouting a number from the parking lot. You find it by looking at where the money actually goes.
That’s what we did with the City’s budget. We started with the contracts, the overtime, the consultants and the year-end spending, and we wrote down every dollar and where it comes from. You can check every one of them.
City Hall has spent four years telling you there’s no way to hold the line without cutting services. There is. Fix the bucket.
The Back to Basics Budget builds on Your money, in plain sight, the small business tax cut and the vacant unit tax repeal.
Read the full plan, with every source (PDF)
We’ve got a lot of work to do.
Ottawa deserves better.